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http://mailchi.mp/ribbonfarm/good-forecasting-takes-strong-nerves?e=a2746bfc5a 1/ The Arthur Clarke hazards of forecasting principle says that forecasting can fail because of either failure of imagination, or failure of nerve.

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2/ Failure of imagination results in visions of the future that are weirdly impoverished in terms of the potential complexity, richness, and scale of future events.

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3/ Weak imagination often shows up in a tendency to think in terms of extrapolated trends driving pet abstractions. A good example is "markets will solve everything."

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4/ They may or may not, but thinking of the future in terms of the evolution of an abstraction conveniently saves you the trouble of imagining and acting on rich specifics.

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5/ Weak nerves often show up as a tendency to think in terms of wishful human archetypes. Based on cartoon peacenik/warmonger archetypes for example. 6/ Thinking in terms of cartoon humans saves you the nerve-wracking business of anticipating a world where you might have to deal with more complicated people, not less.

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Какое прекрасное слово "писник"

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