http://mailchi.mp/ribbonfarm/good-forecasting-takes-strong-nerves?e=a2746bfc5a 1/ The Arthur Clarke hazards of forecasting principle says that forecasting can fail because of either failure of imagination, or failure of nerve.
2/ Failure of imagination results in visions of the future that are weirdly impoverished in terms of the potential complexity, richness, and scale of future events.· псы в рапиде
3/ Weak imagination often shows up in a tendency to think in terms of extrapolated trends driving pet abstractions. A good example is "markets will solve everything."· псы в рапиде 1
4/ They may or may not, but thinking of the future in terms of the evolution of an abstraction conveniently saves you the trouble of imagining and acting on rich specifics.· псы в рапиде
5/ Weak nerves often show up as a tendency to think in terms of wishful human archetypes. Based on cartoon peacenik/warmonger archetypes for example. 6/ Thinking in terms of cartoon humans saves you the nerve-wracking business of anticipating a world where you might have to deal with more complicated people, not less.· псы в рапиде
Какое прекрасное слово "писник"· Страдающее Снеговиковье
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